Success with sports betting: Statisticians clarify!

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Maximilian Deininger February 4, 2019

That would be a sensation, but maybe also the end of sports betting as a pure gambling. Because although it is commonly known that the outcome of sports events can never be predicted safely despite expert analyzes, statistics and expert tips, a lonely man now claims that it is relatively easy to be successful with sports betting in the long term. The statistician Michael Monka says that everything it needs for success is the right statistical model.

Numbers and other data records – these things alone should guarantee systematic success with sports betting, a Bochum statistician claims.

More data available than through DAX companies

knowledge is power. the english philosopher francis bacon, whose winged words are likely to be applied to all areas of life, already knew that. however, some would certainly also say that a bit of emotion and intuition are certainly necessary for success in sport. a man who would certainly not confirm this is the statistician michael monka from the university of bochum. michael monka has been a doctorate and has been examining the chances of winning in gambling in cooperation with other analysts at the university in cooperation with other analysts. monka has recently specialized in sports betting. games in the largest football leagues in the world are currently becoming special attention. the researcher now has by means of different statistical models A system with which he can predict different scenarios and typical weather events relatively precisely – at least that’s the theory.

“Each of us has more information about the teams in the Bundesliga, the European top leagues, sometimes even through the clubs in the second and third division than through DAX companies. It is publicly more about the level of performance, the personnel situation or any crisis of a football club known as about the exact status at a large company. This is a huge advantage that sports weather have the classic stock exchange. ”Michael says

Because at least in principle, only a sufficiently large amount of data is required to predict events, which, according to Monka in sports, is much more extensive than, for example, through companies. According to Monka, sports betting would even be better suited as an investment or “speculation objects” than companies or stocks listed on the stock exchange.

It is best to tap only on single bets

For the statistician, the matter is relatively clear: Anyone who understands the system behind sports betting and strictly adheres to their strategy will win in the long run. however, it is particularly important to keep discipline and not to question the system immediately in the event of lost bets. because as usual in statistics or probability calculation, there is also outliers here and there. only when a sufficient number of attempts – or in this case betting slips – would the theory have to coincide with the results from practice. that is why, according to monka, you shouldn’t see sports betting as a gambling and, when “gaming”, trust in your luck – at least not if you want to be successful in the long term. furthermore, monka advises to only bet on events that only include two forms. it was easier to calculate here. above all, however, the statistician gives the tip to exclude single bets, as professional weather also dealt with. ultimately, it is the combination of probabilities, patience and the right strategy that makes it possible to earn money systematically and sustainably with sports betting – and without too much risk.

Coincidence affects 40 percent football games!

Anyone who decides to put their bets on football games should not forget that the Coincidence plays a major role. this is precisely why the bet on victory, draw or defeat in football is often not a good idea. “if an outsider scores the 1-0 after an hour and then puts all the man in front of his own goal, it will be difficult for the biggest favorite to compensate for this coincidence. because we shouldn’t forget one thing: the proportion of chance is quantified in football to 30 to 40 percent, ”explains monka. favorite victories also occur more often in other sports. this proves the statistics. despite this manco, the statistician recommends choosing football as a sport for professional and strategic gambling. the reason for this is relatively simple: the amount of data. according to monka, there is no other sport in which it is so easy to get usable data material that is the basis for calculating probabilities.

”With my team I evaluated around 30,000 games in Europe’s top leagues and created a prediction model. You can quickly see a pattern, for example in terms of the number of goals achieved. Such a wide statistics base is therefore the basis for operating serious sports betting. ”Michael says

The best statistical model currently applies “Expected Goals”. With this system, the statistician with his team can calculate the efficiency of a team and to a certain extent. This in turn can be generated for predictions how many goals a team will probably achieve – so ideal for goal bets. By the way, the researcher gives insights into his analysis results on his own website. How successful the previous forecasts have been is not known, but there can never be enough analyzes for fans of sports betting.