Betting on the Brexit? When bookmakers know more than politicians

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Lennart folder 3. April 2019

Great Britain has been a member of the European Union for 40 years. The fact that the country was now facing a leak from the European community, which demanded the “United States of Europe” far before the EU was founded in the person of Winston Churchill in 1946. conceivable. This may also explain why the “Brexit” in Great Britain is not only a political issue, but is also currently hotly discussed in another area: among sports betting fans. These and also the sports betting providers have been accompanying Brexit since the referendum in June 2016 – and sometimes they knew more than many a politician.

Brexit and Theresa May are not only controversial in Great Britain.

Politics in the British gambling very popular

About the now historical Brexit election night Almost three years ago, many numbers and statistics have become known. A certainly also interesting number should be the following: 182.000. so many british put their money from the betting provider betfair on an event that the online bookmaker had included in his portfolio for the brexit referendum-and in just seven hours and only with a single betting provider. further figures from other bookmakers are not known or officially confirmed, but this number alone suggests that political events on the european peninsula not only have social scope, but also to Entertainment culture belong. However, this is certainly not a new finding, because political betting enjoy a long tradition in Great Britain.

“The Lloyds of London insurance exchange offered insurance on election results.”

Sports betting in Great Britain celebrated the breakthrough in the years from 1910 to 1940. Long before the times of the Internet or the legalization of sports betting in Great Britain in the 1960s were conducted – in Universities, cafes or private clubs and clubs. even insurance companies offered bets on political events, especially elections. this was found out by the gaming researcher paul rode from the university of michigan. even politicians found fun looking for their luck in political gambling. of the British statesman Charles James Fox, at least in his biography, it had already invested a large part of his assets in the 18th century in order to bet on current political events at the time.

Betting provider with more precise data?

The current political Brexit confusion is not only interesting for customers of betting providers. From a somewhat distant perspective and with a view of the history, the watchful eye should have noticed that behind the numerical betting odds Not just mathematical bills can stick that promise different high profits depending on the bet. unlike sports events, statistical data records in politics is quite difficult. for example, the betting provider smarket is currently offering its customers a Quote of 6: 4 for the event that great britain will leave the eu legally and completely from the eu between may and august 2019. in another betting provider, the “opportunities” for the participation of great britain are 50 percent in the upcoming european elections, if the odds are rejected, if you agree to a second brexit referendum almost 30 percent. since betting odds are always an image of which event sports betting fans consider likely, the current odds political opinion poll be understood. A look at the first Brexit referendum proves that this is not quite out of air.

“It looks like the gamblers had a better sense that the Leave campaign would win.”

Three years ago the odds already tended to a Brexit, as experts and the media, still completely cripped in the dark and were not available any projections. While at around 3:00 a.m. in the night of the vote, everything was almost clear, the experts from the United Kingdom, BBC, said that Brexit only predicted the Brexit shortly before 5 a.m.

Quotas of the betting providers in public interest

It should be clear that the quotas of the betting providers are particularly interested in their customers. In Great Britain, however, also take Politicians and journalists the betting odds in political events very seriously. in fact, the odds of the large and well -known bookmakers are even mentioned in editorial articles in the large state newspapers – and that regularly. unlike in USA, for example, sports betting and betting providers in great britain also come one social and political importance to that goes far beyond fun and entertainment. in the meantime, the interest in the predictive power of betting odds and their importance as a mirror image is so great that universities even deal with this topic. die University of Cambridge examined in a study For example the first Brexit referendum and came to the conclusion that the then Betting providers made the right predictions in the majority. So if you want to know how the British people will decide in future votes, you should possibly take a look at the betting odds.